1. Most Americans will not start paying attention to the race until next September and are therefore not familiar with any of the Republican contenders. Remember that the race between Reagan and Carter was close into the summer of 1980.
2. The route to the White House lies through Electoral College, so a national poll is not really significant. The election will be decided in about 10 states. The only siginficant polls will be those taken of likely voters in those states.
3. History matters. A President has never been reelected with Gallup's approval numbers at or below 40% and unemployment at or above 9%.
All that being said, I am concerned that many Americans will believe their economic interests will be served by a continuation or expansion of our current spending policies and will therefore vote for the incumbent.
“All that being said, I am concerned that many Americans will believe their economic interests will be served by a continuation or expansion of our current spending policies and will therefore vote for the incumbent.’
They will not as the economic conditions continue to deteriorate and they lose their jobs.