[Andy from Chapel Hill]

I think Sarah did a head-fake on Greta’s show to see if Christie would enter the race.

Seriously, the support for Paul and Romney is about 31% combined (RCP). That means 69% do not want Paul or Romney.
This 69% is waiting to vote for a conservative they trust. Perry started to attract this group, but isn’t as perfect as he first seemed. Cain is now the anti-Perry, Romney and Paul.

If Christie does not enter the race, and Palin does, it will be interesting to see how the 69% crystallizes around one of the remaining candidates. I think that once Palin decides whether to enter the race (I think she will...) then the crystallization will occur quickly and the race will be down to Romney vs. Perry, Palin and Cain.

I think Cain’s money will run out and Perry will fall behind. Then, the primaries will determine if Palin or Romney will be the candidate. I predict lots of cross-over primary voting (Operation Chaos II) and it will be a 50-50 race to the end.

FWIW.

[visualops]

I think Cain’s money will run out

You need to understand something about Cain. He's not a politician. He's not your usual candidate. His campaign is IN THE BLACK. He doesn't spend spend spend til it runs out. He runs his campaign like a business. The only debt he incurs (temporarily) are travel expenses which are paid within 30 days. He has seen a huge boost in donors and donations and Sept. has been his best fundraising month ever. He is getting more press and making more high-exposure TV (and radio)appearances than ever. Last night he was on Leno. Cain is in it for the long haul and has planned accordingly.