Just wait till we go into a deadlocked convention!
And not I’m not kidding. I’ve been running some numbers (because it’s one of the things I do) and nobody will have the 50% + 1 required to get the nomination.
Remember, the GOP has changed the rules. No more winner take all. Any primary held before April 1st (almost all of them) have to allocate the delegates proportionally.
If these rules had of been in effect in 2008, McCain would have gone into the convention with only 47% of the delegates—not enough to secure the nomination.
I think Romney has a ceiling of 35% of the delegates. Depending on how many legitimate Romney alternatives appear it could go several ways. Given the people in the ract today it could go either:
Romney 35%
Perry 40%
others 25% (split among several candidates)
or
Romney 30%
Perry 25%
Cain 25%
others 20% (split among several candidates)
This second scenario is looking like the most likely to me at the moment.
Do you realize that if Ron Paul manages to pull 10% of the vote (not unrealistic) he could be a major player at the convention, even a king maker?
or
(sarcasm starting) Sarah Palin could ride in at the convention, declare that she is running for president, unite the convention behind her, and become the nominee with out running in a single primary. (sarcasm ended)
Really though, given the rule changes and the fact that no single canidate looks like they will be able to dominate the early primaries, there’s a serious chance the GOP will go into the convention without a candidate.
I’m sure I’m not the only person that has run the numbers, and I’m positive that’s why you keep seeing the establishment GOP trying to get somebody (anybody) into the race (from Christy to Perry) that they think everyone will rally behind.