I agree with half, maybe two/thirds of what you say about the straw polls. They are news filler and they can be criticized fairly as extremely small samples.
Now for the slight nuanced disagreement:
I submit a couple of things make them more significant that useless: For instance, the Florida Straw poll was a correct predictor of every single GOP nominee starting with Reagan’s first successful run. And then there’s the idea that simply because the news channels do hype them, they grow into something more significant than perhaps they should be.
One week, or six weeks from now, the Florida poll might be doing Cain no more good than the Iowa straw poll did Bachmann. OR, it might a game changer.
“it might a game changer.”
That would be fine by me. As a small businessman from the South, I like him for his business experience more than anything and his folksiness might help him as well. xI just don’t see him winning the big prize with so little political experience.
The previous FL straw polls were done in a different time with different slates of candidates. Smaller ones, if memory serves. At the debate, this one looked like an army squad lined up ready for a fight. Nine players. With a big field like that most anything can happen. Throw in the Tea Part factor (i.e.something new) and you have even more unpredictability.
It’s a bad metaphor but I’m thinking of the Kentucky Derby. Every year it has the biggest Triple Crown field and it is the toughest of the 3 races to handicap. Lots of horses and lots of inexperience, hopes, and dreams.
This race requires patience. We have to see what that “squad” comes up with.