I think everything you said is valid - and when I say the Florida straw poll “might” be a game changer - I mean just that — it might — and of course, it might not.
And I agree, a 9 candidate field and 9 man debate is not necessarily indicative of how the same person might do in a 3 or 4 person field or a 2 person debate. I think a lot of folks are trying to read into debating Obama or Biden what they see in these mass free for alls. Could be misleading. I think the Kentucky Derby analogy works.
Also there is a huge desire for folks with something other than the normal political experience this year, but we’ll see with Cain how big of a factor that is.
I think 2012 is a year with possibilities that have never existed before. That’s not to say those possibilities will necessarily happen - just means they are on table and they never have been before IMO.
All the new things you allude to are the main reason I am paying the amount of attention to this race as I am. For me, the scenario is actually more interesting than the field of candidates.
Another factor that you brought up is the amount of time available to each candidate to answer the questions. Way too little. A short amount of time will result in bad-—and sometimes completely unintended-—answers.