Example of ORSAT used in predicting the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft reentry breakup. Demise altitude vs. downrange evaluated for nearly all of the UARS components.
Posted on 09/23/2011 10:07:53 AM PDT by Evil Slayer
That was then and those guys. This is now and these guys.
UPDATE
The UARS satellite is predicted to re-enter the Earths atmosphere on the 24th September, 2011 @ 04:49 GMT ± 4 hours.
UARS
1 21701U 91063B 11266.92730638 .09135854 11791-4 18500-3 0 6390
2 21701 056.9390 263.1012 0003809 338.0534 022.2824 16.46920535109153
Period: 87.82 minutes
Inclination: 56.93°
Apogee: 170 km
Perigee: 163 km
Average orbital velocity: 7.804 km/s
Revolution Number: 10920
Predicted Location: 2.9°N, 5.5°E
Perhaps.
+ or - 4 hours, that’s what, like almost 3 full orbits?
I think the +4 after the GMT time is the time zone you have add to get local time. 4:49am GMT +4 hours is 8:49am local time.
correction: SW to SE
Yes, it was supposed to have been almost directly over San Antonio. Well, you lived to tell about it and it didn’t land in a nearby pasture and set that part of the state on fire. All’s good!
Let’s say you are flying arong the planet, in a decaying orbit. Further suppose thar your - um - appendage in hanging out the window.
Imagine the factors that affect when the thing burns off - is the window up or down? Which way is the wind blowing, relative to your velocity? What is the shrinkage factor?
You see, this really IS rocket science.
And it ain’t easy. No weather baloons up there.
Oh, oh, OK. Gotcha.
Local news here in Seattle is saying it might be visible about 9:30 PM local time, which, coincidentally sounds like about the time it’s expected to hit!
I guess that translates to 2 more orbits.
LOL - No tellin’ where it will eventually end up but i didn’t need that helmet after all. But the night is young. Kind’a cool watchin all the stars tonight. Beautiful. Clear skies.
From what I have read on the Twitter feed the satellite is a little less than 90 miles above the Earth now.
With billions of dollars invested in supercomputers and billions invested in every type of PHD, these overpaid clowns guess that it might possibly land SOMEWHERE. I would suspect, given the equipment and data from NASA, several high school geniuses could do a better and more exacting prediction. I predict NASA will alter their prediction, after the space craft crashes, to show that they predicted it.
Do you have a Twitter link for that?
One night I went outside to watch a meteor shower. I was seeing about 3-4 a minute.
Then, I saw a very, very bright light that appeared in the sky and faded away quickly.
I finally figured out it was indeed a meteor.
A meteor that was coming STRAIGHT AT ME!!!
So if you look up tonight and see a very bright light that has no apparent motion in the sky, it’s probably a good sized chunk of the satellite. And it’s coming directly towards you!
GET OUT OF THE WAY!!
It might be a good idea to like have your car keys close or something!!
;-)
And have clean underwear on just like your mother told you to do. LOL!
Yup!!
For those who have tin foil handy, you still have time to construct an indestructible hat!!
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