“But she has to commit, NOW. Not later.”
Why????
The only time constraint I can see is the various filing dates for state primary elections.
When does the first one close????? Iowa???? When? middish Oct.......
Since Iowa is a caucus state and subject to masssive manipulation by various campaign organizations I hold the results there in little regard. Candidates have been known to skip some of the earlier primaries......so even Iowa’s filing deadline may not be limiting factor.
The small state of NH seems, at least to me, of more import than Iowa because you actually have to campaign there to win (just getting your people to hang around a caucus room isn’t enough).
Still I believe Palin will run and do well in Iowa, and will have a creditible presence in NH with vote totals that put her on the map. From there Carolina and Florida will establish direction and energy that will carry the day into super tuesday........
Being a Palin supporter I have faith that, because this isn’t her first rodeo, she knows what she is doing and has mapped out a plan of action/strategy that suits her campaign style and tactics....... as in all things, time will tell.....I plan to relax and enjoy the ride...
If she is going to run, and if she runs, I think she will get the nomination. But, the Democrats are going to throw a ton of crud her way and try to make the election about her.
She needs to take the crud, deal with it early and get it out of the way.
That way by next summer her “image” is old news and the election is about Obama’s weaknesses.
A Palin-Obama contest will be fought in one of two ways:
If the left and the mainstream media set the tone in the fall, and the contest is about “Caribou Barbie” and the media image of Palin, then she will lose, narrowly, but lose.
If she goes earlier, takes the crud, handles it, and gets it out of the way, then by summer it is old news. Then she can focus attention on unemployment and Obama’s mis-handling of the economy, energy, the scale of the disaster of Obamacare, Gunwalker, The Middle East, etc.
If the election is about Obama, and how the the Emperor has no clothes, then she will win every Bush 2004 state, plus places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Unlike Obama, she has a record of success in office and in 2012 will still have more executive experience than him.
But she has to end the uncertainty, set the tone, take the “incoming fire” and bucket loads of crud about her background and personal life. Unite the party, around her and have it all resolved by April.
Then the next five months are about Obama and the string of failures and false promises he has left in his wake.