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I don't know you from Adam, and quite frankly I am beginning to understand why. As far as polling data this far out, it's biased towards those that are actually paying attention. Polls are skewed by the closeness one has to the occurrence. Right now more people are concerned with the economy, sports, weather and home life than to give more than just a single thought to politics. If someone is getting air time more than another i.e. Perry right now, he's likely to get the nod in polls, just because that's what people are hearing. It is that simple and why it is simple minds read into simple polls.

You apparently misunderstand the point to polling.

Polling is not intended to be a long-term predictor. Pollsters themselves will tell you this. Polls are a snapshot of what opinion among a large group is like *at this moment* and therefore has predictive value only over a short period into the future. In this sense, you are correct. However, your terminology that polling data this far out is "biased" is incorrect. Polling data is "biased" or "unbiased" based upon the constitution of the sample taken, and how closely that sample is to the actual composition of the group being polled, etc. The distance in time to the event which is ultimately the end result of the (hopefully) series of polls being taken plays no role in "bias."