[icanhasbailout]

There’s a first time for everything.

We’re only talking a 2^7 probability to get them all correct, and with some of the races being obvious (Mondale, Dole, McCain losses) we’re really only talking about something that is no more remote than a 1 in 16 chance. If you had 16 people flipping coins to determine each contested election, odds are at least one will pick them all right.

[Perdogg]

How was 2000 scored? If you look at every election since 1984 only one, 2000, was ever in any doubt.

[Vigilanteman]

Correct. The 1 in 2^7 probability is really only a 1 in 2^4 probability and I'd wager even closer to a 1 in 2^3 probability since 1992 was pretty much a Clinton cakewalk as well.

The odds that all 16 coin flippers would be wrong in a 1 in 8 probability is (1-(1/8))^16 of about 11.8%. If you use a 1 in 16 probability, then that number rises to 35.6%.

Bush I really never had a serious challenge from Governor Doofus either, so you might put the guy's track record down to the only two closely contested elections in the cycle: 2000 and 2004. The odds of all 16 coin flippers getting everything wrong is then reduced to (1-(1/4))^16 or a whopping 1%.

[cuban leaf]

I remember my brother telling me that Reagan was going to die in office because every president who was elected on the zero year (in this case, 1980) died in office.

Except he didn’t.

This guy’s track record is based on less than ten election cycles. That is not empirical evidence. It is anecdotal evidence. Give him a century or two of this sort of thing and I’ll take it more seriously.