Like so many folks in New Orleans? The problem with hurricanes is that they are unpredictable. It takes time to evacuate people. If you wait until you are sure you need to evacuate, guess what? It will be too late.
I think you’re both right:
Hurricanes are unpredictable and by the time they can be predicted it’s too late to evacuate. But the next time there’s an evacuation order, more people are likely to stay put.