You're a real classy representative of your band of fellow second-guessers. A real know-nothing naysayer making a stupid, easily-refuted accusation.
I'm glad Irene's winds were not a large-scale problem. The rains are another story, there are some record flood levels on streams in the Philly area and elsewhere. The point is, Irene was unpredictable and therefore precautions were a good idea. A guy like you was probably advising his neighbors in the 9th ward in 2005 that they really didn't need to evacuate, because look how many times the forecasters got it wrong in the past.
Now on Monday, instead of devastating hurricane news we get stories like this, amazing isn’t it?
National Hurricane Center Gets Defensive:
On the negative side, the forecast after Irene hit the Bahamas had it staying as a Category 3 and possibly increasing to a Category 4. But it weakened and hit as a Category 1 storm and stayed that way up the coast until it faded into a tropical storm by the time it reached New York City. It lost strength as it moved north over land and cooler water.
Read said they will go back and figure out what happened, but noted they have made huge strides in projecting where a hurricane will hit. In past storms, they would have issued warnings for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, but there were no evacuations there for Irene.
“We’re not completely sure how the interplay of various features is causing the strength of a storm to change,” Read said.
One theory is that a storm’s strength is dependent on the storm’s inner core. Irene never had a classic, fully formed eye wall - even going through the Bahamas as a Category 3.
“Why it did that, we don’t know,” Read said. “That’s a gap in the science.”
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110828/D9PDAF0O0.html
Hurricane Lost Steam as Experts Misjudged Structure and Next Move
All hurricanes evolve, and most weaken, as they track northward, their size and strength affected by water, wind and terrain. And all hurricanes eventually die — a relatively quick downgrade to a tropical storm in the case of those, like Irene, that travel inland, a more lingering demise for those that trail out to the colder waters of the higher latitudes.
But Irene’s fall — from potential storm of the century to an also-ran in hurricane lore — was greater than most.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/us/29forecast.html?_r=1&partner=MYWAY&ei=5065
Perfect Storm of Hype: Politicians, the media and the Hurricane Irene apocalypse that never was
For the television reporter, clad in his red cagoule emblazoned with the CNN logo, it was a dramatic on-air moment, broadcasting live from Long Island, New York during a hurricane that also threatened Manhattan.
“We are in, right, now…the right eye wall, no doubt about that…there you see the surf,” he said breathlessly. “That tells a story right there.”
Stumbling and apparently buffeted by ferocious gusts, he took shelter next to a building. “This is our protection from the wind,” he explained. “It’s been truly remarkable to watch the power of the ocean here.”
The surf may have told a story but so too did the sight behind the reporter of people chatting and ambling along the sea front and just goofing around. There was a man in a t-shirt, a woman waving her arms and then walking backwards. Then someone on a bicycle glided past.
“Scientist mocks: Phony “hurricane” coming on shore with 33mph winds”.
Forecaster: ‘Hype over Hurricane Irene overblown’...
https://www.gplus.com/Hurricanes/Insight/The-storm-cannot-master-its-own-strength
CATEGORY FEH: So, why the big Irene blowup?
Jason Samenow, chief meteorologist with the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, which is receiving kudos for its accurate and restrained reporting, said last night that some cable anchors were still reporting that Irene could strike New Jersey and New York as a major hurricane long after his team determined that it clearly was weakening.
“You want to raise awareness of the possible worst-case scenarios in order to take the storm seriously - but in order to do so some media outlets resort to hysteria and hype,” Samenow said. He added that such reporting can be spun as a public service even as fear and hype drive the ultimate real goal of any for-profit venture like the Weather Channel (owned by Philadelphia’s Comcast), which is higher ratings.
“The gulf between informing people and exploiting this is very, very wide,” agreed Jeff Jarvis, director of the Tow-Knight Center for Entrepreneurial Journalism at City University of New York and a well-known media critic.
But there were lots of mixed motives here. Journalists wanted higher ratings and maybe a career-making story (remember, CNN’s Cooper got a prime-time gig for his wrenching Katrina coverage in 2005) - while politicians wanted to keep citizens safe but also boost their flagging poll numbers.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20110829_CATEGORY_FEH__So__why_the_big_Irene_blowup_.html
U.S. President Barack Obama on Sunday warned that flooding from Hurricane Irene could worsen as rivers flood their banks and said federal recovery efforts would last a few weeks.
“I want people to understand this is not over,” Obama said in an appearance at the White House. “Response and recovery efforts will be an ongoing operation.”
ROFLMAO!!!!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/28/storm-irene-obama-statement-idUSN1E77R0EA20110828
Bottom line is, we will never know whey their barometers showed a number that did not coincide with the strength, they don’t even have an explanation. Incorrect readings or...?
Regardless, my point all along was that the storm was not what they were saying it was, not a cat1, not as strong. Hurricanes categories are determined by wind speeds, they were wrong. Satellite photos clearly showed a deteriorating storm as in encountered dry air entrainment and southwesterly sheer. It MIGHT have been a cat 1 when it first hit NC, although I doubt it. After that it was never more than a TS and TD. It is obvious and the facts cannot be concealed now.
I was right, you were wrong, admit it.
Irene Forecasters Got Storm Path Right While Missing Hurricane’s Intensity
Only Two Locations Had 85 MPH Gusts
NOAA said that maximum average wind speeds at landfall were 85 MPH, hurricane winds stretching outwards for 90 miles. In fact, only two locations even had gusts over 85 MPH.
The 115 MPH is a mathematical outlier from a “trained spotter” – which is not credible and should be thrown out. The nearby weather station at Beaufort, NC, had a max speed of 53 MPH and peak gust of 70 MPH.
http://www.real-science.com/uncategorized/locations-85-mph-gusts
Keep this in mind too, waiting for you to stickup for this nutcase:
Obama nominated global warning nut, Jane Lubchenco to head NOAA. She is “ deeply concerned” about climate change and overfishing.” Lubchenco oversees federal regulation of oceans (including issues such as coral reef and marine sanctuary protection), satellite operations, weather prediction (including global warming science) and fish harvests. Trust her and the people that work under her, no and hell no.