Replies

Public polls are not elections. Palin polled poorly just before she won the Governorship. She has said she doesn't pay attention to polls. They lie.

No, polls are not elections but, for a well known candidate, they are extremely good predictors of the coming election.

In 2008, Christine O'Donnell ran for a Delaware U.S. Senate seat and was slaughtered.

In 2010, the polls predicted that, if she ran for a Delaware U.S. Senate seat again, Christine O'Donnell would get slaughtered again. But, the True Believers like you cried, "Public polls are not elections" and the suicidal Banzai Charge went forward.

Result: Christine O'Donnell was slaughtered again, exactly as the polls predicted, and a self-proclaimed "bearded Marxist" in college is now a U.S. Senator from Delaware.

Now, to quote Yogi Berra, "It's deja vu all over again" .... "Public polls are not elections! Let's try that suicidal Banzai Charge one more time!"

Polls are the most inaccurate when there is a new candidate or when a candidate is not all that well known. A new candidate or relatively unknown candidate is like an unknown NFL bench-warmer: One week, Tom Brady is a 6th round draft pick bench-warmer who everybody has a low opinion of and then, 6 weeks after the starting QB gets injured, Tom Brady is the greatest thing since Dan Marino.

Thus, Sarah Palin's low polling at the start in the Governor's race. Thus Ronald Reagan's low polling at the start of the 1980 race.

The thing about the unknown QB coming into the game is that the large swing in opinion is possible only while he is still unknown and can turn out to be either Dan Marino or Bryan Leaf.

The problem with Sarah Palin is that, currently, she is NOT an unknown. She has been in America's face for three entire years. She has 99% name recognition in the August 2011 FOX News Poll. The only people in America that are not familiar with Sarah Palin live under a rock. The opinions about Sarah Palin have solidified: In the February FOX News poll, 72% thought that she would NOT be a good President and, 6 months later, after a summer of blanket news coverage, in the August FOX News poll, 75% thought that she would NOT be a good President.

That is the reality of polls.

Sarah Palin has become the Nancy Pelosi of the GOP: Wildly popular among her own base and extremely unpopular outside of her own base. .... Even among Republicans.

Pew poll: Forty-one percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say there is "no chance" they would vote for Sarah Palin in a presidential race.

True Believers like you took a suicidal risk in the Delaware Senate race, when polls warned you it was suicidal, and you turned a U.S. Senate seat over to a Marxist.

Now, True Believers like you want to take another suicidal risk, when polls are warning that it is suicidal, when the stakes are the continued destruction of America by a Marxist President.

I'm sorry, but I am not willing to kill the America so many have fought for an irrational adoration of a politician.

You're too wordy. I honestly don't read tomes. And today I am bringing plants inside ahead of Irene while reading FR. And I'm not trying to be snarky. Just explaining. You are a very polite poster and don't deserve snark.

My point stands. Palin lost every poll just before she won the Governorship. You can't compare Palin to any other public office holder or candidate. Her situation is unique.

Oh and PEW is a lefty organization. I wouldn’t believe anything they said if THEIR mothers life depended on it.