You are right on: The geography is the real problem between NC and NY:
1. Areas of narrowing channels will have water forced back inland as Irene approaches, which will flood areas that usually see water draining out of them.
2. Low-lying marshlands are all over the place... many of them fairly isolated; if water washes out one power pole, road, or bridge, that could cut off people for days. Never mind the flooding.
3. Barrier islands will get hit on both sides: the east (ocean) side on approach, the west (intercoastal) side as the “pushed-in” water is released and pushed back out. It’s hard to imagine a storm surge on the non-ocean side, but it’s going to happen.
4. Trees will be down everywhere due to soft ground yielding to high winds.
I just noticed a shift in the models. As Irene is sitting in the middle of the Pamlico Sound, looks like the re-emergence into the Atlantic may occur further north — between the VA/NC line and Currituck.
From there, they’re guessing it stays JUST off-shore at the DELMARVA, and hits Atlantic City. New York-to-W. Long Island? We’ll see about that later, but arrival is expected Sunday morning, 8-9ish.