I don’t daytrade but I follow the markets along with a great many people who do, and the WTI/Brent spread has not passed beneath my notice. I agree with your analysis, the primary result of bringing more Libyan oil to market will be to reduce the spread.
More of a position trade, actually. Once the spread starts coming in, it has quite a ways to go, and I imagine we might be in the trade for a couple of months. Very important to trade the futures 3 months out, NOT the front month. This is one of these trades that there is no point to guessing WHEN it starts working; watch the mkts, and when it does start working, THEN jump on.
Good trading to you!