I don’t think Sarah is running. Over at Red State, they quoted her as saying she had to make a decision soon, to allow her supporters to get on board (if she runs), or cast their lot with someone else (if she doesn’t). Not exactly a “no,” but hardly the words of someone who’s preparing to run.
Your comment about Sarah waiting too long is spot-on. The entry of Michelle Bachmann eroded some of her potential support, and Rick Perry’s candidacy will take away more supporters and donors. Her window of opportunity is just about shut, and I just don’t see her jumping in at the last moment. I think she’s far happier being a king-maker in GOP politics and earning some serious money from the speech circuit and her gig at Fox.
I think the real question is what happens to Sarah Palin if she passes on 2012 and a Republican wins the White House. Does she give up politics entirely, or wait for the next Senate election in Alaska. If she doesn’t run in 2012, I’d love to see her “retire” Lisa Murkowski, but that wouldn’t be until 2016.