It’s 45-49 in NY, but WaPO had it at 44-47 nationwide the other day? It seems to me that if something major happens with the postal union in the risk time-frame that the post office has announced, either major layoffs or a strike, Obama will be in the twenties overnight.
If he is down to 45% in NY it is hard to believe it would be a 44 approval nationally. If he is going down that badly in one of his best states then the overall national numbers ought to be lower.