If the 2012 race is a 3-way race, then you're absolutely right. A united Left and a disunited Right would lead to a victory for the Left.
But in a 4-way race, Palin wins in a walk. How?
I believe that Fast-and-Furious will put Obama in the position of pulling an LBJ during the first quarter of next year. Hillary will also be irreparably damaged in the fallout. That would mean that the Left has no one of sufficient stature to unite behind. A disunited Left and a disunited Right leads to victory for the Right.
Newt Gingrich said that he saw the election of 2012 being similar to 1860. I think he is more right than he knows.
I’m not even sure about a three-race loss. It would be difficult, but I believe Palin or someone like her would take 25% the moment the moment she announced a new party bid (I’m not going to call it third party because I believe it would replace the Repubics in a few months).
Once that happens, we’d have Obama at 40, Palin at 25, and Romney at a measly 15-20, with 15-20 undecided. Now, 5-10% of those in the Romney camp would be conservatives averse to abandoning the GOP. Would they be averse to doing so with the GOP in third party status? I think not. Let’s add 7.5% to Palin’s total, so now we have 40 Dem-32.5 Con-12.5 Rep-15 Undecided. Now, undecideds break 80-20 for the challenger, in this case Palin, so now we have 43 Dem, 44.5 Con, and 12.5 Repubic. That actually leaves some margin for error, and it could even work out better than that.
It could by the hair on our chinny chin chin, but I could see a three way race falling for Palin. I’d much prefer working through the GOP, but I’m not going to say it’s impossible even in three way race. In a four way race, though, I cannot see anyone but Palin winning.
But it could happen.
I believe we are living in the most volatile political climate of my lifetime (born 1940).