Um, not exactly.
That “Trust” fund is filled with IOUs called treasury securities. When SS payments exceed SS taxes (as they are doing now), the “Trust” fund has to redeem an IOU. When it presents the Treasury with a security to be redeemed, the Treasury must pay it. That payment comes out of the General Fund, which is why Obama said there may not be enough money to mail out checks.
Where did the $2Trillion go? When SS taxes come in, the “Trust” fund either pays current recipients, or buys Treasury securities with the excess funds collected. The Fund gets the IOU in return for giving the Treasury the cash. What does the Treasury do with the cash? It spends it, on “stimulus”, high-speed trains to nowhere, etc.
At least that is how I understand it - YMMV
But the swap does not incur any new debt, so the money is there to pay it. The money in the trust fund is money that was already borrowed and is included in the current national debt, so if the treasuries are cashed there is no increase in the debt. The Treasury has 2 trillion dollars of money that it can use to pay social security without increasing the national debt by even one penny.
This is why Obama is a bald faced liar. He knows it. Geithner knows it. Everyone in his administration knows that issuing checks to social security will not increase the debt and therefore the checks must go out. Their threat to old people is a despicable lie.