I remember the 1980 election is was pretty close until the Sunday before election day and then it turned decisively for Reagan. It was the independents that make up their minds at the end of close elections who choose the winners.
Folks can theorize about whether or not the base is going to stay home or not but it really docent matter its getting the last minute independent/undecided vote that wins elections
Show me the numbers. I don't believe "moderates" won it for Reagan. Reagan excited the base to vote in much greater numbers than in 1976 and also won over a large swath of what would be known as, Reagan Democrats.