Actually, you can explain almost all of it by looking at ethnic makeup, in particular the percentage of African-Americans.
Lots of blacks, lots of crime. Call me racist, I don't care, but it's true. Political ideology has little to do with it except that blacks tend to be concentrated in Democrat strongholds.
You want to live in a safe neighborhood? Break out those census demographics. If the ethnic makeup is greater than 15% African-American, it's probably not the safest place to raise a family. Even Hispanic neighborhoods are safer than black ones.
That same statistic also works well for how good a particular public school is going to be relative to the others nearby.
Two towns in north/central PA.
Virtually NO “ethnic diversity” in this area of the state.
The names have been redacted to protect the citzens!
[”C”], PA (1.03)(0.00)(3.43)
[”S”], PA (14.96)(0.00)(49.88)