His approval is higher than Reagan's in July 1983.
If the nominee is Romney, Huntsman, Pawlenty, or a clone, he is very likely to be reelected.
I’ll agree on Romney, since that is guaranteed to produce a Tea Party challenger and a likely Clintonian plurality win for Baraq.
Even with the chaos and failures, Obama has a better than even chance of reelection. People who think otherwise are in denial.