Let me say something off-tangent ...looking at some of the systems the US is currently developing (particularly the few projects by DARPA that have made it to the light of day, which can be taken as a tacit sign that there are more/better projects hidden in the nebulous dark), it does seem that the US is preparing for any eventuality, including conflagration against a near-peer adversary. While Congress yaps that current weapon systems are too expensive (e.g. the F-22, and now the F-35) and many systems get cancelled (e.g. the Crusader), there are other solutions being worked on that are more ‘out there’ and bode greated potential and effect. Which makes me wonder that, even as the Dems say cut weapons (and even as us FReepers worry about the future capability of the US military machine), that there are still systems working that ensure the capability and edge of the US is still far beyond almost anything else out there. I know we like to look at things in terms of black and white (Dems bad, Pubs good), but when it comes to certain things there is a lot of gray (eg Cheney killing the F-14 upgrades when he was Sec of Def, and the Raptor getting its throat slashed and heart stabbed when Bush was president ...Obama simply nailed the coffin and lowered it 6 ft). For instance, the cancellation of the F-117 may have seemed bad when it happened, but it was because better technology was available (and the NightHawk was already obsolete to enemy detection as shown in Serbia). Maybe I am too optimistic, but I have a feeling that (even as we complain about the attrition of US capability) that should a near-peer (read: CHINA) ever try anything funny, they may get some surprises that are not too good for them. One last example ...we know how good the F-22 is (absolute dominance in the A2A regime, high kinematics, all-aspect stealth, all that and a bowl of relish), but a story came out a couple of months ago about some tests the USAF was running where they were working on AESAs that could detect the Raptor. I took that to be a dig at the Chinese J-20 (i.e. if we can detect the Raptor at viable ranges we can detect YOU at ranges that have considerable kill efficacy). Again, if that information is being released, and we are discussing it on an open forum like FR, then what else is lurking behind knowing minds and sealed lips that we do not know? If I know some of the vulnerabilities of the AEGIS system, then how much more do those in the real know (as opposed to us internet folk) know (both in terms of real capabilities, as well as counter-measures to any vulnerabilities)? If you know of the short-comings of the Harpoon to current and future Chinese phased radar systems, then how much more do those in the real know know, and how far have they come towards defeating those naval PESAs and/or AESAs? As I said, off tangent, but I think if we knew the sheer extent of what is going on we would probably sit down and either laugh or cry (depending on whether one is pro US or anti US). I have a nagging suspicion that the pro US side would be laughing, and laughing hysterically. Yes, I am also an optimist.
Yes.
When the Navy perfects rail gun technology missiles will be in serious doubt.