Excellent.
As soon as I saw her ethanol statement along with the bus tour, I knew right there she was adapting and updating Gingrich’s old 1994 50 state strategy (back when he was worth something) and also Reagan’s 1976 effort. She wasn’t putting all her eggs into Iowa and she’s banking on the South and West, minus the Mormon states.
This is smart as Iowa is very hit and miss picking the nominee. A win there can be pyrrhic like it was for Huck. We certainly don’t have the delegates anymore, those obviously are in the South and West. With NH assumed to be Romney’s, who cares if she comes in 2nd there either? She just needs to be in the top three and close behind the leader if she’s not 1st.
South Carolina and Florida in particular is where she needs to hit her stride. Ironically the old bastard McCain might pay off for her there being she was his VP pick and he both those states last time due to retired military and seniors.
The only real danger for her in Iowa is a big Romney or Cain win. I will say I’m worried about Cain being a threat to Palin more than you are. I personally predict a tight pack with Palin as 1st or 2nd, maybe 3rd. There will be no clear victor I think coming out of Iowa regardless.
Cain is the lynch pin. He got a big bump in the Fox News debate, but I sense only enthusiasm but no ground game yet. If he doesn’t get money and workers going by the Straw Poll or shortly thereafter he’ll fizzle unless he manages to capture Huck’s network when Bachmann likely folds after Iowa, or ignites the Tea Party. He has chops but I don’t think he can win it on that alone. He is the only one who may knock out Palin by being a spoiler and give it to Romney.
If Cain folds at any point, Romney’s toast. Pawlenty is already trying to work the Straw Poll but I see nowhere to go for him. He has no base. Gingrish, Huntsman, or any other forseeable candidate will only take from Romney.
This thing is, and always has been, Sarah Palin’s to win if she wants it.
The thing to remember is after the first batch of primaries the allocation becomes proportional thus stretching out the primary battle. In theory the battle should be over by super Tuesday. This plays to Gov. Palin’s strengths.
You’re acting as though Cain is the enemy.
I find your analysis very thought provoking. I believe that Cain or someone like him could be a player in Iowa in any other year. This year, He will be matched against one of the most gifted politicians in U.S. history. He has none of the charisma nor the depth of understanding of policy nor the communication skills which Palin possesses in full measure.
He will do no better, and probably much worse than Allen Keyes, who was a much more spellbinding orator. For the most part, the only conservatives who will vote for him are those who harbor some deep-seated racial guilt and want to satiate it by voting for a black conservative. I suspect such guilt cookies are in short supply right now, as most people think the election of a black President has canceled whatever debt their conscience had levied upon them. Cain cannot expect to be the beneficiary of this neurosis to any significant degree. Without it, he is just another first time candidate reaching for the brass ring with his first grab.