One problem on your Cain scenario. Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, and Trump will jump in, I figure. They will split votes between conservatives. Cain may have to start attacking them.
My hope is that Michele Bachmann wins then the rest of the conservative candidates and voters unite behind her and she picks Herman Cain as VP and Bolton gets a big role when she wins. Cain has a good shot though if he can take out the rinos, but if Bachmann gets in then it becomes a horse race between Bachmann and Cain for the conservative vote. Then some will look at Trump and Bolton should they get in. For me, it is a toss up between Bachmann and Cain at this point on who I like better. Problem is everything changes if Palin enters. Then I could see conservatives votes really split.