I think the NRO assumes Sarah’s not running (see my #227, she said to WSJ she has no committee and doesn’t really seem to be looking seriously at getting into the race). Michele might run but can’t win (as Ron Carey, her chief of staff last year, put it, and as most polls show). So ... that’s why NRO ruled them out.
I take back what I said about Bachmann and polls. She is actually leading in polls of conservatives but I still don’t think she is going to run or can win. She also doesn’t have an exploratory committee and I think she wants to stick around in Congress longer at her current job.