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I think Cain can pull it off and beat Obama, for several reasons:

1. He’s truly conservative, the way Reagan was. Unabashed, plain-talking, charismatic conservatism wins.

2. He doesn’t have pre-existing high negatives like Palin does.

3. He’s got Trump and Romney’s business sense, without the personal baggage, iffy conservative credentials and utter douchiness of The Donald, or the political wishy washiness of Romney.

4. He is first and foremost an American. That said, he realizes that his race WILL be made an issue, he can take it in stride by using phrases like “Dark horse” (pun intended) and “a REAL black man” running against Obama. I think this is a good balance. While I don’t want the campaign racialized, it will be, regardless, and Cain’s own race makes their attempts at playing the race card ridiculous, esp. since Cain himself can retort and play it right back at them.

5. He’s an interesting guy to listen to. He doesn’t bore you to death like Pawlenty or Santorum.

6. He has faith, but can walk that fine line between being a moral man of faith but not coming across like a televangelist (that’s you, Huckabee). He is more than acceptable to SoCons, yet, he can get a lot of support from the fiscal/Tea Party voters too.

7. He can get a little bit more of the black vote than any other Republican. Normally Republicans get 10%. John McCain got something like 5% against Obama. Unfortunately this is largely probably due to Obama’s race. Cain may be able to peel enough off enough to get 12 - 14%, but probably not much more. In close states with high black populations (VA, PA, FL, NC, LA, AR) this could make the difference between Obama winning and Cain winning.

(you’re right about West though, he could, but he won’t run).

I like Cain. If Palin doesn’t run he may be my fallback candidate. But he has a few problems. One is potential health problems. Five years ago he had metastatic cancer. Now he’s supposedly ‘cured’ but I presume honest oncologists would still cite some risk for a relapse. That, his age (65) and the sadly briefer life expectancy for black males would inevitably lead to questions being raised by MSM as to whether he could stay the course. Even though presently Cain looks, and sounds, far healthier than Obama. The other is losing his GA Senate primary. If he couldn’t beat even an insider Rino, in a conservative state’s primary, can he beat Obama in a tougher contest? And he’d be better able to fend off Obama’s inevitable shots and his lack of “government” experience had he been running with time in the Senate comparable to Obama’s. Not to mention the Senate would be a far better body if Herman were raising Cain within it!