It may be time to examine what AQ said immediately after the raid in Pakistan. Basically, it doesn't matter much one way or the other:
Pragmatic Analysis on the 72 Most Critical Hours in the Fight between AL-Qaeda and the Zionists and Christians Alliance
In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Beneficent
Today, I want to approach the matter in such a pragmatic manner. I will try to put things into context, and be rational in my writing. I am going to suppress my emotions for 72 hours. I will, however, roar in delight if the news of killing Osama is true or the delight will flow over me if it is false. But now, nothing but the voice of reason should rise.
Indeed, in my opinion, the next seventy two hours are the most critical hours in the history of the Jihad struggle of Al-Qaeda against Zionists and Christian’s alliance. The way that Nato announced the killing of the hero of Islam, Osama bin Laden, supports my view.
It is a whole different way that was a contradiction in terms. The matter is nowhere near aimless.
Firstly, the US wanted to emphasise and give the news the greatest possible credibility. It has been announced by Obama himself, putting his position as a President for the US, and the reputation of all different US intelligence agencies as an official assurance to the veracity of the news. It is totally different from what we used to hear before in the US news and rumours against Al-Qaeda. Usually, the rumours and the news were used to spread by unknown sources, or at best by a military commander.
So, the US wanted, this time, to insist on the news in a way that is not likely to leave any space for raising doubts. Anyone heard the news would wonder: Is it reasonable that Obama, by himself, would put his political career and the reputation of the US with its entire security agencies on the line if the news is proved to be false? And the immediate rational reply comes out; it is impossible! Then, the news would seem more certain and that is what the US wants to achieve.
Secondly, the US, much the same way, also wanted to cast doubts on the news, and make it full of holes that arouses the suspicion of everyone who suspected the credibility of the news. The US refused to provide any evidence for anyone who watches and hears that Osama has been killed. On the contrary, the US did and said a lot that is meant to cast doubts on the news that it has wanted to be emphasised by its highest official!
The US stated that no one from their side has got hurt in the clash, in the knowledge that the witnesses have seen and even filmed and made it available on the internet opposite information that refutes these claims.
The US also said that the DNA tests proved that the killed person is Osama, while they are aware that these tests take at least three days. They, however, announced the results in a few hours. The only case that the test takes an hour or hours is that when there is a previous sample from the same certain person, that is Sheikh Osama himself, not one of his relatives. I do not think that the US has a previous sample for the Sheikh which has already been tested!
The US said that they have the body while they have refused to publish any pictures. The picture that has been published by the Pakistani channel and some websites is an old picture that everyone, including the US, knows it is a fabricated one. So, why they have refused to publish pictures that would have been an irrefutable evidence for the US report? Instead of welcoming the circulation of fabricated pictures.
The US also stated that they get rid of the body by throwing it into the sea, despite the fact that they know that this action would cause vehement furore in the lines of Muslim laymen!! However, they did so to leave no chance for any side who might ask to receive the body or publish its pictures!
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So, the US surely meant to insist on the news through an announcement from its highest official. At the same time, they wanted to raise grave doubts on its news, and create considerable confusion, which is the thing that they have succeeded in achieving it so far.
There are only three probabilities, the greater likelihood that I personally support will be written at the end of the article. I will, however, leave for the reader to make his own judgement far from the emotional impacts to come out with a conclusion that is in accord with the logic.
Firstly, the US, as I have already said, does not intend to cast doubts on the news. In fact, it cannot provide us tangible evidence on the veracity of news. This is, however, a lower likelihood. It indicates that the US is making up fatuous story that is likely to be proved wrong within days by a few words from Osama. That would be an acute embarrassment for the US unlike all previous times. This time, it is Obama by himself who did the announcement. It is the political career of Obama which is likely to fall down. Additionally, it will be a false statement that will knock the bottom out of the entire US administration and its agencies.
Secondly, the US is fully aware that Sheikh Osama would not come out to disprove its claims. That would be, however, the case if only he is captured, my Allah forbidden it. This is also a weak likelihood. We know that all Mujahedeen leaders do not leave their belts behind, and anyone among the Mujahedeen prefers to die thousands of times than getting captured. That is what they long for it.
The third likelihood is that the US is taking a serious risk to officially announce, at its highest level, this news; and at the same time, to cast questionable doubts on the correctness of the news. The US might have killed Osama, but not willing to provide evidence just to create confusion; or perhaps, it is an outright lie and the US does not care about the credibility of the news. It may also want to spread the rumours and lies so as to prevent a risk that is much higher than losing both its credibility and the future of its president.
Perhaps, the US agencies have received certain information on a major operation that may target it and its interests; or maybe they have found out that the timing of the operation is within seventy two hours, the time that also takes the release of a statement from the Mujahedeen to confirm or confound the claims of the death of the Sheikh. Then it wanted, by creating this considerable confusion, to frustrate the plan of the attack. The major attacks are closely linked to Sheikh Osama personally, and with current malicious rumours that spread the news of the death of the Sheikh and doubts on the report at the same time, makes the operatives to defer the operation and try to get in contact to make sure of the information and also take new instructions.
Perhaps, the US has carried out some intelligence penetrations on the communications of the Mujahedeen, and intended to find out the list of the attackers in this way. It is the goal that if they achieve, anything else including their credibility would not matter. They may then brag that it was an invented plan. Their success on uncovering the plan would make others overlook their lie to the world. Moreover, they may become champions in the eyes of their silly people.
I do not see a forth likelihood for this ironic US story.
Therefore, I see that any group from the Mujahedeen that is supposed to execute an operation should move on to the implementation without delay and to totally avoid getting in contact to make sure and take new instructions. The order has been issued. Using your personal qualities in some of the details is much better than delaying the operation and waiting for new input.
The mujahedeen and their supporters should also avoid falling in the wilderness of indecision. Moreover, they should not contribute in creating the chaos. Everyone should proceed to their Jihad, whether it is sword or the pen one, like if nothing has happened. We are experiencing 72 hours of the most critical moments for the Jihad of the nation. Suspension, hesitation and stillness to wait for new updates will not help, and change what has already happened. It is, however, a retreat. Let us move on as the orders. The truth would be revealed within 72 hours, considered the most critical hours in the fight between the nation and Zionists and Christians’ alliance.
Let us step up with Allah’s blessing. Do not anyone discontinue doing what they have pledged to Allah, and abandon their loyalty to their Ameer and commander.
Have I conveyed the message…O Allah, be the witness!
Your brother
Yamman Mikdab
29-5-1432
2-5-2011
Looking at the final AQ statement, it's not really much different. He's dead, but he lives on...
