I’ve said it before....this electorate is absolutely, positively, 110% primed and ready for an outbreak of populism
I largely agree with that. But, I don't think a populist can win the GOP primary, nor do I think there's a Dem populist who could come even remotely close to unseating Obama in their primary. So, that leaves the (I think) very real possibility of a 3rd-party populist candidate, like Trump.
Of course, that would spell absolute doom for whatever GOP candidate secures the nomination, and would guarantee Obama's victory in Reagan/Mondale-like fashion. I also think that such a 3rd-Party national ticket candidacy would make it a little tougher for the GOP to take back the Senate, if for no other reason than Obama would probably enjoy some strong coattails in that kind of situation.
Up-ticket success does much for the same party candidates down-ticket, generally.
Everyone was worried about a New York billionaire named Bloomberg running on a 3rd-Party ticket. It looks like they got the bank account and city right, but the name wrong.