The answer is probably sooner than most people think. Space X, a private company founded by Elon Musk (who is also the CEO of Tesla ), is set to launch the Falcon Heavy in 2013 at Vandenberg AFB. The Falcon Heavy will be the largest rocket since the Saturn V and have a payload of 53,000 kg. The Shuttle only has a payload of 24,400.
SpaceX will also be making a Spacecraft called the Dragon, which can configured to support 7 passengers, and can be carried into orbit by the Falcon Heavy.
SpaceX will also have a launch pad at Cap Canaveral.
I'm sorry to see the Shuttle program ending and I wish we had a next gen Shuttle ready to go. But I'm happy to see that companies like SpaceX will be stepping up and providing the heavy lift capability our country needs.
Here is link to a video of the Falcon Heavy. Pretty cool imo.
“NASA is providing $278 million to SpaceX for the development of the Falcon 9 and the Dragon as a resupply system for the International Space Station.” source - http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/04/04/6409132-spacex-shoots-for-next-big-thing
it may be a private company but it is still getting funding from NASA/fedgov
I am all for innovation from private companies, but let’s not think that they are doing it all by themselves.