It’s a close race, I’ve got a spreadsheet set up and am pulling in the data by county, comparing it to the 2004 Bush/Gore race. Unfortunately, just projecting on a straight line based on the number of precincts outstanding is not completely accurate. At this stage that would be forecasting a 40% higher turnout in Waukesha than there was in 2004. While I’m sure the GOP got out the vote there pretty well, I doubt it was that high (what it really means is that the larger precincts in Waukesha have reported).
In any event, this looks like a really tight race. Milwaukee County turnout looks lower than average while Dane County is higher (right now at 93% of the 2004 turnout, but I seriously doubt that’s accurate, just means, like Waukesha, some of the bigger precincts have reported).
Basically Prosser underperforming Bush in 25 of 49 counties with percincts reporting and outperforming Bush in 24 of 49 counties. This will come down to turnout, and probably be a battle of Dane vs. Waukesha Counties on turnout.
Supreme Court REPORTING 38%
David Prosser (inc) 319,941
52%
Joanne Kloppenburg 301,187
48%
Excellent. Where are you getting your county data?