Almost unquestionably he will lose Milwaukee big. Waukesha and the rural areas will help counterbalance, but it’s going to be a horserace.
The good thing is that it's projecting like Milwaukee County will cast 200,000 votes. From what I've seen so far, in most counties turnout has been about half of what it was in Nov 2004. 200,000 votes would be just over 40% of what were cast in Milwaukee county in 2004. Depressed turnout in one of the two big Dem counties would make up for the likely greater turnout in Dane County (among state workers, etc).