They were fairly narrowly for Walker last time so I don’t think Prosser is going to win big there (for instance, Obama had about a 15-point margin in that precinct in 2008 even though the county as a whole was split between Obama and McCain). Close the 224-vote gap some, but not eliminate it.
From what I can tell, 1500 votes are needed for Prosser to pull out, assuming that this precinct continues at the 58/42 split.
What was "fairly narrow" for Walker last time ?
The lib lawyers and activists must have descended on Jefferson. They are paralyzed.
I was wrong about the number of votes last November in the outstanding precinct in my last post, it was not 2,300, it was 982. There are two Lake Mills "precincts", one apparently a city, the other a township.
Walker won by 6 points statewide while Prosser's in a dead heat. Then again, the heavy turnout in Dane County is one of the reasons for the dead heat, Prosser would be up by 1.5-2 points if Dane turnout was lower. So let's just assume that, outside of Dane County, Walker outperformed Prosser by 4 points.
Lake Mills went for Walker by 12%. So, based on that, we'd estimate that Lake Mills would go for Prosser by 8%, with a turnout about 72% of the 2010 November number. 8% times 982 votes * 72% = a 57 vote gain.
Looking at it another way, within the county, Walker won by 23%. Prosser is up by 16%, so Prosser is running 7% behind Walker within the county. 7% * 982 * 72% = a 49 vote gain.
I would love to be more optimstic, and perhaps the people really motivated to go out and vote in this area were Republican, or perhaps they were more motivated.