I have my World Almanac handy, with the 2004 and 2008 Presidential results by county. Because Wisconsin was a toss-up in 2004 (Kerry won by 11,000 votes), it’s probably better to look at counties based on how they went in 2004.
Dane County went for Kerry by a 2-1 margin, so 64%-36% is trailing the 2004 Dem vote.
Now that isn’t everything, because this is a turnout election. The Dem could be 2-3 points behind Kerry in every county, but if the turnout is higher in the Dem counties she’ll win and perhaps win big.
I was doing the same thing. Columbia County is a little discouraging at this point, but who knows which precincts are still out.
I would think that a local or state election strikes closer to home, especially given recent events in WI. The folks can decide if they want to continue down the path that’s led them to near bankruptcy, or accept that some restraints have to be put on govt.
Is it the case that this election has gotten a lot of publicity? Also, why now? Odd time for an election.