I don’t see Klop picking up much in Milwaukee, maybe another 1,000 net votes. My concern is Dane. It looks like there are two significant precincts left and I’d project they’d cast about 5,000 votes, with Klop gaining about 2,500 from those precincts (taking 75%).
http://www.countyofdane.com/clerk/elect2011b.html
That would give her about a 85,000 vote margin in the county. The AP has her with a 79,300 vote margin. So that’s a gain of 5,700. Plus the 1,000 from Milwaukee and that gives her a 6,200 vote lead, with more Republican precincts still outstanding.
The big mysteries are Washington and Waukesha Counties. Both are Republican, both have a lot of precincts out, but the votes have not been coming in. The straight-line projection model would indicate a turnout about 75% of that in 2004. That doesn’t make sense, even Dane County only has about 67% of the 2004 turnout.
If we assume Washington and Waukesha end up with 50% of the 2004 turnout, then Prosser would gain about 6,000 votes from the remaining outstanding votes. That would offset the gain from Dane/Milwaukee. But 50% may be a high estimate.
Marathon County (GOP) and LaCrosse (Dem) will likely cancel each other out in the extra votes. Ozaukee may be a key (it’s GOP).
In any event, it’s too close to call.
lacrosse already all in.
Washington County is all in. The big question now is whether Waukesha can offset the late surge that will come in from Dane.
Waukesha and Washington are all in now according to AP.
But who knows, AP sucks.