Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Outlaw Woman
It may be a 'buyer's market, but the evidence is that the market is still going down. Gary Shiller (of the Case-Shiller Index) expects prices to drop another 20% (though there will be regional variations) - we haven't even begun to fully work through the backlog of REO and foreclosures, let alone the the loans underwater, but still performing. (And, 2011 is the year when a lot of the commercial real estate will need to be refinanced). Shiller doesn't expect to see prices turn around for another 3-4 years.

At some point, sellers still unrealistic expectations will give way and there will be a big fall, perhaps even an overreaction (as is typical when bubbles pop). Remember, mortgage rates for those who still qualify remain artificially low, and as inflation heats up, as it now is, borrowing costs will increases, reducing buyers' purchasing power, and hence, prices.

Some observers think prices could drop to 1987 levels (although, 1987 was itself a bit of a bubble year.....).

I guessing that most people looking to buy in the long term would be better off renting in the short run and saving money to buy when prices drop another 15-20%. Few people will perfectly time the bottom, but it's not really time to buy yet.

66 posted on 03/28/2011 10:13:19 AM PDT by CatoRenasci (Ceterum Censeo Persae Esse Delendam -- Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies ]


To: CatoRenasci
Yep, the commercial market is going to be a rough ride. Where I am there are brand new strip malls standing vacant which have been on the market for 2 or more years. Not to mention the fact that stores are shuttering their shops at a record rate.

And yes, sellers for the most part are unrealistic and unreasonable. That's why I haven't listed anything for quite awhile. They get pissed when they're told the truth and that is hard to take. Some still have not realized just what is happening.

Anyway, if someone is set financially they can step in and get great bargains right now, but buyers are going to become scarce because there are more and more people losing their livelihoods. That's why the foreclosure rate is so high in the area I'm in. The Chrysler plant closed down and it was the largest employer in the area. Whatever else is coming, it's not good.

72 posted on 03/28/2011 11:26:07 AM PDT by Outlaw Woman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson