The latter is why Ron Paul ran I presume. And he was quite effective. He got a lot of money, sold a lot of books, and folks who think that whole parts of the feral gubmint could be shut down discovered that they were not lone kooks and that a lot of others feel the same way.
I would like to think that reason 2 is why Newt would participate. He does not actually stand a chance.
I agree with you that Newt is not a candidate who has a serious chance of being nominated, or believes the contrary.
I do tend to see four, rather than two, types of Presidential candidates, whackos aside.
The first is the “real contender” category. That’s Romney, Huckabee, (if she chooses to run) Palin, and a short list of others. You can’t real measure this category by after-the-fact degrees of success — when guys like Rudy Giuliani, John Glenn and Phil Gramm ran for President, they were real contenders even if they flamed out quick.
The second is the “serious guy whose candidacy builds his personal brand.” Joe Biden’s 2008 campaign were classic examples of this, and Newt Gingrich’s would be even more classic. The goal is to put ideas out there, sell books and lecture tours and visiting professorships and commentating gigs, position for the VP selection or a Cabinet seat with the winner, etc. The clear giveaways that someone is in this category are that they are NICE TO EVERYONE on the stump, and that they raise surprisingly little money. Negative campaigning defeats the point, and the people who ask for, and write, $2300 checks know that it’s not the real thing. I tend to think that Haley Barbour will be in this category if he runs.
The third type is the “tribune of the niche movement.” This person is bigger and louder than type two, because he’s not about just himself, but about the movement, for all that the movement has no hope of electing a President at the present time. Ron Paul is a terrific example, Dennis Kucinich is a good one, as well, as were Jesse Jackson, Pat Robertson, and Pat Buchannan’s campaigns.
The fourth type is the “has-been cry for attention.” Every cycle has several; Chris Dodd and Carole Mosely Braun candidacies are great examples of that.
I agree with your take on Newt if he actually follows through with a presidential run. He will influence the debate and educate a lot of voters about how the govt is run and what it takes to run it. Also, it is something to do. Having been a big fish in a little pond it takes some doing to stay out of the excitement of the political swirl. The presidential candidate can live well and rub shoulders with movers and shakers as well as the ordinary citizen so that is a plus for a political lifer such as Newt. I like Newt but would not vote for him because he is easily swayed by proximity to liberal power. He probably does not see this in himself but I perceive it as a major weakness in going against the anti American forces now in control of this country. He does not need to be president to make his mark for the good of this Republic.
Which is what the GOP would be with him at the head of the ticket. Come to think of it, since the RINOs run the show, and they are eunuchs, Neut, or Newt as he prefers to be called, would be perfect for the low testosterone RNC. They can chat about Green Jobs and Global Warming.
Hey how about a Barbour - Gingrich ticket? 600 lbs of total bullshiite for just one primary vote. Quite the bargain.
It could mean big money for that other castrato, Karl Rove, too. Neut. Karl. Haley. Join hands and GoTF away. And take Mike Steele with you.
There’s a third reason.
Ego.