History shows it will most likely be one of the above 4. Only once in the last 100 years or so did the GOP pick a guy who was unknown and didn’t have a natl profile and that was Wilkie in 1940 after WW2 started and FDR ran for a 3rd term(a special circumstance).
In the modern age, they’ve never done it. So it will be someone who people know and has a national profile. Only Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich fit the bill. Jeb Bush does but he’s said he’s not running. Petraeus would. Other than that, I can’t think of anyone else.
I agree Romneycare ends Romney’s hopes. So it’s down to Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich and I’d say that’s the likely order if Huckabee runs.
If Huckabee doesn’t run, then I’d say it’s either Palin or Gingrich. And Newt is almost 70 and does the GOP really want a nother 70 year old with white hair to go up against the young and hip Obama? Not to mention all his baggage and the fact that it will be 2012 and nothing says 1994 more than Newt. I think his time has probably passed.
So, it’s likely Huckabee or Palin. One will win in IA and use the momentum to win in SC and go from there.
If the economy has improved Obama will win. If it stays the same or gets worse, he’ll lose.
With or without the economy , Obama loses. Obamacare , immgigration and deficts make him DOA. Clinton had none of these problems in 96. Even Bob Dole propped up by a jukebox could win against Obama in 12.