Hindsight is 20/20. 2008 was down 37%. You are running a scam if you can guarentee 4% above inflation.
Only a complete idiot is going to judge the stock market as a tool for retirement upon a single year's performance. Retirement is a long-term process, not a short-term one. You asked for a return of 5% over a twenty year period. I gave you one that was a point off.
The only thing more idiotic than basing retirement projections over a single year performance would be to discourage retirement investment based on performance over the last three days. One would have to be a complete moron to do something that short-sighted.
I tell you what. If you want to give your money over to the government and trust them with your retirement, by all means go right ahead. And good luck with that one. But as for me, I just ain't that stupid. Do the math. Math never lies.