Below are the states offer a guaranteed lock or a strong likelihood of going 0bama’s way, for a total of 259 EV. Included are some states whose statehouse and legislatures changed over after the Nov 2 elections, because presidential elections draw more minorities to the polls.
In short, beating 0bama will be a steep climb. He’ll have a big advantage going in.
CALIFORNIA (Lock)55
NEW JERSEY (Likely)15
COLORADO (Likely) 9
NEW MEXICO (Likely) 5
CONNECTICUT (Lock) 7
NEW YORK (Lock) 31
DELAWARE (Lock) 3
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (Lock) 3
HAWAII (Lock) 4
OREGON (Lock) 7
PENNSYLVANIA (Likely) 21
ILLINOIS (Lock) 21
RHODE ISLAND (Lock) 4
IOWA (Likely) 7
MAINE (Likely) 4
VERMONT (Lock) 3
MARYLAND (Lock) 10
MASSACHUSETTS (Lock) 12
WASHINGTON (Lock) 11
MICHIGAN (Likely) 17
MINNESOTA (Lock) 10
As thing stand today,I don’t see Obama taking any states in the South next time. If he loses in Ohio, which appears likely now, he can’t win re-election.
We have to run the table on the rest to win. Not impossible, but difficult.
We’ll have to have a decent nominee to do it. Not Palin, not Romney, not Huck.
Herman Cain, Jim DeMint, Bobby Jindal, or maybe even (eek) Mitch Daniels...they could do it!