well, i wouldn’t go that far? all but wrapped up is a bit too presumptuous. People thought Hillary had it all but wrapped up.
I continue to be perplexed by Huckabee’s support. I’m fairly involved in politics, talk with people who are, etc... most of whom are pretty conservative and I don’t know any of them who really like Huckabee. It’s almost like when Nixon won in 72 and that NYT writer said “How did he win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him”.
Huckabee must have support out there, but I haven’t really seen it. Just look at his PAC #s compared to the others for example. Romney had around 3500 $200+ donors. Palin had around 2500. Pawlenty had around 1500. Huckabee had around 400. Now, I know that doesn’t tell you everything, but it sholud give you some idea of the level of enthusiasm and support out there. And Huckabee wasn’t just behind, he was way behind. Same in terms of total $ raised.
I think a lot of his support may be from people who otherwise would like Palin but just don’t think she can win so they go with Huckabee instead. It would explain why she leads the 2nd choice question.
I’d like to see a poll that asked “If you knew the Republican was guaranteed to win in 2012 who would you choose for the nominee?” I think Palin would do omuch better in that. I think a main problem for her is that people think she’s unelectable so they go with someone else.
I’d also like to see poll of Obama/Biden vs Palin/Huckabee or Palin/Romney. I think she’d do much better in general polls vs Obama if she was listed along with a potential VP and it was ticket vs ticket not just her vs Obama. I think most of those who’d vote for Huckabee or Romney over Obama but not Palin, would vote for her over Obama if one of them was along as VP.
Of course we shouldn’t get over confident, but check out my break down in post #24... I think I make a compelling case.
I think Governor Palin is in way better shape than many think.
Of course it will still be a hard fought battle, but Palin supporters need to remain confident,(the biggest problem is staying positive with all the endless smears and derision) she is in the pole position and perfectly aligned to win it all.