So basically the top 3 are all tied. No one has really broken free.
Huckabee and Romney have for the most part retained the support they had at the end of the 2008 primary, if anything they’ve bled around 20-25% of it. Both ended 2008 with around 25% or so.
I continue to think whoever emerges from the Huckabee/Palin wing will be the nominee. The two of them combined have consistently doubled up on Romney. I see Mitt as representing the establishment/moderate/beltway/business side of things and Huckabee/Palin representing the conservative/populist/social(cultural) side of things. I’d see the Tea Party types as more leaning towards the Huck/Palin side than the Romney side. Huckabee and Palin both appeal to simliar evangelical/populist types.
I see one of the two of them emerging, winning IA, then winning SC and going from there. If Palin wins in IA the momentum will be too great to stop and she’ll win. If it’s Huckabee I don’t think it wil as large a momentum boost but he’ll still likely win.
Palin has to be somewhat pleased considering that this poll was taken basically a week after the national media accused her of masterminding the Giffords shooting and proclaimed her career over.
Palin is attacked by the media every day. The media haven’t even lifted a finger against Huckabee or Romney. That has an impact. Once people find out about Romneycare in MA he’s finished. And how many people know Huck commuted the sentence of a guy who went on to kill 4 cops? Among his many commutations and pardons. Lets see what happens once they start getting scrutiny.
But as for Palin, if she wants to run, now is clearly her best opportunity. It’s hard to see her being a better position come 2016 or beyond.
As Eminem said, you get one shot, one opportunity.
Excellent analysis, now look at my post #24.
This thing is almost over before it starts, and it is scaring the establishment to death.
That’s why there is a sudden surge to promote Jeb in the media. They are desperate because Governor Palin has this thing all but wrapped up.