I don’t trust the market anymore to explain, predict or reflect. Ever since TARP it’s been odd.
It's been odd since at least the Clinton years.....
And in fact, I think the markets are not really driven by market forces per se, anymore -- at least, not in the sense people usually think of them: money following and rewarding good business decisions, and punishing bad ones.
The majority of market volume is controlled by software, which seems to be oriented more toward making money off of short term price fluctuations than anything else.
Large swings seem generally to be prompted by emotional reactions and "Tulip Craze" considerations that have limited contact with actual market conditions. Somebody gets ginchy about oil or something else, and everybody starts to pile on ... and the software begins responding to the emotional price spike.