There is zero chance that the US will fight to save Taiwan, and this has been true for many years.
“There is zero chance that the US will fight to save Taiwan, and this has been true for many years.”
Jim, you’re one of the few folks around here who sees things as they are — not through prisms of liberalism OR of conservatism, but simply [again] “as they are”.
Although they remain “apart” politically, in the years since Mao’s death the nations of China and Taiwan have grown much more “alike”. Both are now capitalistic-minded nations, albeit with different governmental control structures.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see China make an offer directly to the people of Taiwan to reunite with the mainland under the same principles and options that were offered to those of Hong Kong. If such an offer were made, I would expect the principal opponents to it on the Taiwan side would be the elites and governing classes, who would of course lose their power and control. But I would wager that the majority of Taiwanese would assent to such a scenario.
I also see some kind of “grand exchange” to be offered by China in the future.
China wants Taiwan, to reunify the Chinese people. But such deals can’t be sealed without quid pro quo. What can China “offer” to “free Asia” in return?
Answer: North Korea, the outlaw state that has been under China’s wing for 60 years.
But the ideologies that once were similar to both countries have changed to the point where North Korea must be a continuing headache for the Chinese.
As China has moved to be more similar to Taiwan (than in the past), North Korea has moved 180 degrees to the opposite of its southern sister. NK has become a danger not only to South Korea but to the entire civilized world through its export of weapons, including nuclear proliferation technology. Unchecked, at some point it must be brought to heel, by whatever means possible.
But NK cannot exist without Chinese support, and without it must quickly collapse and capitulate.
China could intentionally decapitate the North Korean government and military, forcing it into “peace talks” with the South Koreans that will be nothing more than cover for a veiled transition of control to the South.
..... IN EXCHANGE for “reunification talks” with the Republic of Taiwan, whose conclusions will be foregone.
Hence, the “Grand Exchange” of Asia.
“There is zero chance that the US will fight to save Taiwan, and this has been true for many years.”
This is one of the dark sides of the Reagan era. Reagan choose china over taiwan in 1984.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,951046-2,00.html