” If that’s the case, then what are the odds that China will stay out of it, particularly if the south appears to be winning? “
Here’s a repost of a speculation I posted on this topic a few days ago — haven’t seen anything to invalidate it, yet....
I’ve been getting more and more uncomfortable with all of the speculation, of late, on what China *should* do to resolve this situation, to *our* satisfaction - so I’ve spent the past couple of days trying to look at the cards from what might be the Chinese perspective...
And I’ve come to a startling conclusion —
In an armed conflict between NK and SK, China comes out as the BIG WINNER - by doing precisely nothing....
The US is in an untenable position - our options, in case of hostilities, are to
a)abandon - sacrifice - the 30,000 troops-in-place, renege on long-standing defense agreements, and withdraw from the area — in which case, the US is finished as a World Power...
or
b) Honor our treaty obligations, and commit a tremendous amount of blood and treasure (neither of which we can afford) to the war effort - which will, at the very least, weaken the US to the point of insignificance, if not bring down our Government completely.....
Either way, while the military outcome of any such war is a foregone conclusion, it will inevitably leave the entire Korean Peninsula as a devastated area, with only China left with the resources to rebuild....
So, by remaining aloof, the entire SE Asia theater - and, more significantly, market - comes under Chinese sway without any more troop committment than it would take to control the oft-mentioned ‘refugee problem’.....
No wonder they’re not ‘doing what they should’ to calm things down - I really don’t think they see any downside for them in conflict in the Koreas......
...unless the South Koreans win decisively, in which case the ChiComs would then have US-allied military and intelligence units right up on their border.
If it goes to war it will be a short and very bloody war. The resources we have in the region are all that will be at risk. There won’t be any time to move others into the area.
NK cannot maintain a long war without help from China. But lots and lots of people will probably die in a few short weeks.
You forgot the third option, that makes China a big loser. We honor our defense treaty with South Korea, but make it know that we are cash-strapped and bogged-down in Iraq and Afganistan, thus requiring us to aid the South Koreans in non-conventional ways.
Then we nuke all the hardened Nork military sites.
That would spare us the loss in blood and treasure... and poison some of China’s land and people.