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To: Jim Robinson

Maybe this will stir up enough conservative outrage that it will be an issue for the GOP pres. canadidate in 2012. Repeal the repeal.

But don’t go back to DADT, go back to the pre-Clinton policy.


165 posted on 12/18/2010 1:51:37 PM PST by Little Pharma
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To: Little Pharma
Maybe this will stir up enough conservative outrage that it will be an issue for the GOP pres. canadidate in 2012. Repeal the repeal.

I think anyone who believes that DADT will ever be reinstated, or that homosexuals will ever again be barred from the military is dreaming.

First of all, it's an issue that only exercises right-wing conservatives. The rest of America either doesn't care, or is fine with it.

Secondly, for those voters who are not strongly opposed to gays in the military, a presidential candidate who is activity campaigning to bring back the ban will simply come over as a bigot -- especially once the attack ads begin.

Third, bringing back DADT will not be an option, since there will already be thousands of homosexuals serving openly by then (13,500 have been dismissed under DADT, so the numbers are not small), so the only option would be an outright ban, and that is a far tougher sell since you would faced with the prospect of thousands of troops being expelled at once, and the press would have a field day even at the prospect of such an eventuality.

Finally, if the US policy change follows the same pattern as those in other countries (including the UK, which changed around 10 years ago), then there probably won't be major disruption when the new policy is enacted, and by 2012 it will have ceased to be a issue that can drive people to the polls, especially if the economy is still in the toilet (which will probably limit the number of resignations on principle too).

Add to that the simple fact that getting a supermajority in the Senate in 2012 is highly unlikely, an the Dems are never going to do a deal that includes reinstating the ban.

Thus, in reality, it's going to be 2014 before any chance of new legislation on this issue could be passed into law, and by that time, I strongly suspect that it will no longer be a political issue Republican candidates are willing to go to bat for, even if they were endorsed by the Tea Party.

On issues like this it's far harder to play offense than defense, because your opponent can make you look like an ass for "victimizing" thousands of servicemen and women.

Thus I just don't see any way this change is ever going to be reversed -- not even if Republicans have large majorities in Congress and have the Presidency. For better or for worse, the new policy is here to stay.

227 posted on 12/18/2010 2:23:29 PM PST by tyke
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