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Good analysis. I think at this point it's safe the say the south will probably back the GOP candidate, even states that swayed to Obama in 2008. The same goes for Ohio, and probably Nevada and Indiana. I don't know about Wisconsin, though, which hasn't voted GOP in a national election since 1984. I agree that it is likely she will hold the McCain 2008 states but the GOP needs some breathing room and a 271 electoral vote strategy is simply too tight. The good thing is that after the 2010 census and redistricting, on balance GOP-leaning states gained power in the electoral college, while Dem-leaning states lost them, so that is a natural EC advantage the GOP will bring into 2012, though it will only be a few electoral votes. But, every vote will be important.

I think the greatest indicator that Sarah is a threat to Obama's reelection is the MSM's obsession with her, dedicated to diminishing her and depicting her as a loser and or damaged goods. The fact is, they wouldn't be so focused on Sarah (and to a lesser extent, all the Palins) unless they considered her a pretty serious threat. The fact is, the liberal mainstream media elite wouldn't dedicate so much time, energy, and expense on her if she was truly the loser candidate as depicted.

The impression I get is that these liberal foot soldiers consider her quite formidable, and are doing their part to diminish her now, as opposed to diminishing her later if she decides to run. They probably figure it may be too late by then.