The fly in the ointment, in your take, is that there is a third possibility: the US does get involved, the NK government falls apart quickly, and a new government emerges that isn’t hostile to the US. In this case, the damage to the Korean peninsula may be far less than anticipated, and China would really end up the loser, both in terms of having a buffer between itself and a pro-US SK, and also losing out on the opportunity to dominate a newly formed unified Korea.
Of course, if they really do think the way you do, this gives them enormous incentive to do everything they can, covertly, to support both the NK government, and also the NK war effort ...
” that there is a third possibility: the US does get involved, the NK government falls apart quickly, and a new government emerges that isn’t hostile to the US. “
Yes, there are an infinite number of possibilities, and I made no attempt to cover them all - and the one that you postulate is somewhat lower on the risk-reward tree than the two ‘low risk’ - ‘high reward’ options I examined...
Should your scenario come to pass (not an impossibility) China has still positioned itself - through ‘saying the right things’, while covertly encouraging NK - to step in as the ‘peace broker’, and negotiate a return to status-quo-ante... China still loses nothing, and gains somewhat in regional influence....
The point I want to make is that China may, from its point of view, believe it has virtually no incentive to ‘be on our side’ in this situation.....
If you will remember what the last Democrat President did when his poll numbers were down as a result of him getting caught sodomizing an intern. In an effort to improve his poll numbers, Clinton took our country to war in Bosnia, and on the side of the Muslims too, I might add.
Obama’s poll numbers are now lower than Clinton's ever were, he now has an opportunity to become a war time president, and I'm willing to bet he won't pass up the opportunity to take our country into a war with North Korea just to improve his poll numbers before the 2012 election. I believe things could become very “interesting” on the Korean Peninsula between now and November 2012.
North Korean leadership, I'm sure, has already assessed Obama and determined him to be both weak and stupid, but what they may have failed to realize is that a weak and stupid man, when afforded the opportunity, will frequently become a bully.