“She may win the nomination but is at a 15% (36% to 51%) deficit with independents and that will hurt her chances in the general.”
Gov. Palin has tons of time to win over the Independents. You have to win the nomination first. Reagan (not a comparison to Reagan), was in a very similar situation politically with Independents. He was pronounced unelectable, too radical and out of touch.
Independents don’t tune into politics until very late and they are fickle. They voted for Obama in 08, rejected his policies in a massive defection in 2010 midterms.
In 2012, Obama will have a difficult time winning Independents again, because he won’t go to the center like Clinton appeared to do after his beat down.
I completely agree. For the record, I'm all for having her as President. I just want her more prepared when she takes her case to the voters between now and 2012. Unfortunately some on this thread can't or won't glean that meaning from my posts on this subject.