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To: November 2010; Will88; Toddsterpatriot
Lack of correlation is counter-intuitive.

It sure is and that's probably why most people either don't know the facts or refuse to face them.  About a year ago we got into the subject on this thread with Will88, and over in post 24 I went and got out the record going back to 1973 that showed the correlation was just not there.

Will got all mad at me and I don't think he's ever been willing to accept things as they are, but as far as why there's no correlation I can dig out the reasons for that too if you're interested.

8 posted on 11/16/2010 11:18:34 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
Will got all mad at me and I don't think he's ever been willing to accept things as they are, but as far as why there's no correlation I can dig out the reasons for that too if you're interested.

Lol, your entire contention was and is nonsense. My statement was:

You're going to prove it wrong that when foreign goods become more expensive, that Americans buy fewer foreign goods? And that when US goods become cheaper, foreigners buy more US goods. And vice versa?

Play all the games you like with exchange rate data, but when the dollar weakens and imported goods become more expensive, Americans buy fewer imported goods.

And when the dollar is weaker, foreigners buy more American goods. That assumes that that the exporter to the US whose goods have become more expensive actually passes the increased cost in dollars along to the consumer. There were times in the past when Japan considered the continuing production and flow of exports so important that they often did not pass along the higher dollar costs of a stronger yen/weaker dollar.

I guess you've missed the recent higher cost of crude oil imports which is being attributed to the weaker dollar. What you're really pretending to prove is that price does not affect supply and demand levels in international trade.

18 posted on 11/16/2010 1:42:22 PM PST by Will88
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To: expat_panama
Actually, taking another look at your data from that old thread, you don't even address the statement that I had made because all the trade data in your 'analysis' is in dollars. My statement again:

You're going to prove it wrong that when foreign goods become more expensive, that Americans buy fewer foreign goods? And that when US goods become cheaper, foreigners buy more US goods. And vice versa?

My statement is 100% correct because I, or anyone discussing increased or decreased trade due to currency fluctuations is referring to an increase or decrease in volume, or units, not in total dollar amounts.

If the dollar weakened against the yen in the past, and Japanese cars became more expensive, then Americans would buy fewer cars unless some other factor affected their buying decision. So, the dollar value might stay near the same, but for fewer total vehicles.

Not sure what you were trying to show with that data because the dollars of trade would naturally reflect the exchange rate fluctuations unless some nation decided to eat the ups and downs. Has to be in units to show whether fewer goods were traded.

19 posted on 11/16/2010 2:17:04 PM PST by Will88
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