Perfect example. You infer as fact that any similar airborne phenomena could only be caused by an airliner. I have first-hand experience that dispels that assumption. So, you are 'inferring' that the first occurrence was ANOTHER missile that we(militarily) didn't see, didn't know about?
You sort of have it! But only sort of. Hey, I'll leave it to you to use your brains; I know you've got them.
Truth is always a really handy thing to know.